Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Currency Trading E-books - Another Way to Be Rich, Or to Be Poor?

Currency trading, or Forex trading as it is generally known, is the act of exchanging one country's currency for another. The way currency trading works is simple. You exchange the currency for better rates than they were before and therefore make money on the transaction. All currency traders are dreaming of learning new ways to make more money out of currency trading and many e-books out there promise to make them a truck of money with currency trading.

Now, many people have been complaining about this type of trading just being another scam that people use in order to get money for e-books, but at the same time it is important to realize that Forex trading is a legitimate type of investment that people use every single day in order to make a lot of money.

In general, there are far fewer scams online than you would think from reading the angry forum posts or e-mails of people that have misunderstood the instructions and ended up performing badly as a result. While nobody in their right mind would say that there are no scams online, the actual act of Forex trading is by no means a scam. Some of the e-books that are offered on the topic might very well be scams and that is definitely something that you need to guard against.

I am not saying that there are no good currency exchange e-books out there because it's not the truth. However I suggest you use caution when you have to pay for that kind of e-book. Better to be safe than sorry.

So, how do you figure out whether a particular Forex system is a scam? Well, short of buying it and trying it out on the free version of Forex trading software offered by many companies, there is not much that you can really do. This is why before you buy a Forex system e-book, you need to make sure that there is a no questions asked refund policy behind the purchase so that if you find it doesn't work, you can easily return it and get your money back. Most of the people that sell products of that type do include refund policies, but make sure that you know before you make the purchase that you can get a refund later on down the road.

Another good way to understand if a particular e-book might be a scam is to read up on Forex at the local library or in financial circles, thereby understanding exactly what Forex trading is and how it can make you money. If you do this and you understand what the experts are doing to make themselves money, you'll be better prepared to determine whether a particular e-book might make you money. However, you should never be hesitant to buy and try if there is a refund policy in place, because you can always get your money back if the system does not meet with your expectations.

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Friday, March 13, 2009

Trading Forex - Outlook For GBP-CHF

With financial markets in turmoil, press is full of speculation regarding US dollar and Euro. A lot of coverage is given to unprecedented commodities boom, especially record prices for oil and grains. Precious and industrial metals also draw a lot of attention. Credit and debt markets have been on front pages for a couple of years now. Let's not forget about stock markets, which, both in US and globally, are experiencing wild swings with seemingly no end in sight.

With so much going on, it's no wonder that some very large moves in currencies have escaped attention, or at least wide coverage. British Pound, for one, has not been mentioned as often as it deserves. Same goes to Swiss Franc, and by extension, the cross of these two currencies, GBP-CHF.

Despite being one of speculator's favorite financial vehicle, this pair seems to be living in a shadow of it's cousin, GBP-JPY, which gets far more coverage from Forex analysts. This fact is likely due to much more vaunted stature of Japanese Yen, while Swiss Franc is so much correlated to Euro, that has been loosing trading volume to other currencies, most notably both Australian and Canadian Dollars. By some accounts, even Swedish Krone has reached comparable trading volume about a year ago.

That is when Franc started to regain some of its past luster as a safe heaven during times of uncertainty and financial turmoil. Swiss central bank started to bust interest rates and CHF staged a very impressive rally, lasting better part of a year. Combined with bearish news coming from Great Brittan, GBP-CHF has seen the most severe sell off amongst CHF crosses.

Between July 2007 and March 2008 this pair fell from 2.5000 to 1.9375. That is a staggering 5600+ pips, a huge move by any standard. In fact, it has been first time in over 10 years, and only the second time ever, that this cross fell under 2.0000, a very important psychological level. As it is often the case in such furious moves, the price rebounded sharply from the March low to about 2.0960 and has since settled into a sideways movement.

This "settled price action" is a relative term and true only in light of past few month. Comparing to other currency pairs, daily moves are still large. Average True Range still shows a reading well over 200, and 300+ pips days are the norm. Just last Thursday daily range was over 420 pips. Certainly this kind of volatility demands respect and creates trading opportunities.

Extreme price fluctuations might make it unsuitable for some traders. Also, trading GBP-CHF on short time frames, might be an expensive proposition. The spread, cost of trading, is still relatively wide. Even though over last few years spreads narrowed down, they are still minimum of 6 pips, with 8-10 pips being the norm. In frequent trading, even the larger profit potential might not offset these costs.

Trading longer time frames might be a better proposition for most traders. The recent low of 1.9375 seems to be a major low, which is likely hold for the the rest of this year. As a matter of fact, patterns on long term charts, weekly and monthly, indicate this to be a multi year low. Long term up trend is expected for the rest of the year with a target of 2.1600-2.1800 over next few months. After that next target would be 2.3000 or perhaps even 2.3500, maybe a year later.

This kind of long term expectations should be reviewed and adjusted every few months. As of this writing, the price is around 2.0470, providing us with a substantial long term trading opportunity. Due to large volatility of this pair, one shouldn't use high leverage as there are almost sure to be severe pullbacks over time. While not suitable for everybody, GBP-CHF is certainly an exciting cross, worth of a closer look.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com

This undated photo released by the Metropolitan Corrections Center(MCC) shows a cell at the New York facility similar to the one where disgraced Wall Street financier Bernard Madoff was sent to. Madoff awoke Friday -- at 6:00 am on the first day of his new life as Prisoner 61727-054 after pleading guilty to massive fraud.(AFP/MCC-HO/File)Reuters - Investors are dubious that Wall Street's best week since November means the stock market has found a bottom.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Day Trading The Forex Market

Almost everyone that talks to me about trading Forex refer the day trading. To all this people I tend to say that if you're just starting in this market, "Watch out!" It's not as simple or as easy as it looks.

There are some reasons why most beginners and even advanced traders can't make money consistently day trading Forex.

1 - The Forex market is open 24 hours a day.

Well, this could be an enormous advantage and it sure seems like it. But let us analyze it. If the Forex market is open 24 hours a day and you want to day trade and make money, this would mean be in front of your computer 24 hours a day. Well, this is impossible for one person to do. Even if you could stay awake 24 hours a day (which you can, obviously), would you be in the right frame mind to do a good trade? Would you even recognize that it was a good trade to enter? I don't think so.

2 - The Forex market lacks volatility during most of the day.

I'm sure you already figured it out. If the market is open 24 hours a day, there are periods where there's no volatility and others that the volatility explodes. On these volatility explosions, sometimes you don't even have time to think, not to mention entering an order. When you are day trading, you're constantly looking for a good trade. As during most of the day, the Forex market lacks volatility, prepare yourself to wait a long time before a good opportunity appears. And when it does, will you be able to correctly identify it? Will you recognize that it's a good trade?

3 - The spreads are huge to day trade.

I can imagine what you're thinking. 2, 3 or 4 pips spread is not that much... But let's see what these 2, 3 or 4 pips actually mean when you're day trading. When you want to day trade, you might do several trades during the day. Let's imagine that on a particular day, you made 6 trades. This means that you pay the spread for 12 times. If the spread of the currency pair you're trading is let's say 3 pips, this means that you spent 36 pips just for entering and exiting the trades. So, in order for you to make money for the day, you need to have done at least 36 pips.

4 - The day trading stress.

This doesn't only happen in Forex but also in other financial markets. Although, in the Forex it's even more stressing due to the fact that the market is open 24 hours a day and you can be waiting for a good trade to appear for a long time. Add this to the fact of the lack of volatility of this market.

As you can see, there are a lot of difficulties concerning day trading. This is why I tell all Forex traders, beginners or experienced, that making money consistently day trading Forex is not a simple task.

John Baker is an editor at http://www.ForexTopTen.com

By visiting the website http://www.forextopten.com you can read forex traders reviews about forex trading systems, trading courses, ebooks, softwares and brokers.

The Freddie Mac headquarters in McLean, Virginia. Freddie Mac, the ailing US mortgage finance giant seized by the government, reported Wednesday a 2008 net loss of 50.1 billion dollars, nearly half of which occurred in the fourth quarter.(AFP/File/Paul J. Richards)AFP - Freddie Mac, the ailing US mortgage finance giant seized by the government, reported Wednesday a 2008 net loss of 50.1 billion dollars, bleeding nearly half of it the fourth quarter.

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Sunday, March 8, 2009

Trading For A Living - Is It Easy? Hardly!

Trading for a living, what could be a more alluring profession? The Forbes list of the 500 wealthiest people in the world is littered with names of people who have amassed huge fortunes in the world of Wall Street. Warren Buffett, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, James Simons, Louis Bacon, and Eddie Lampert, just to name a few. In 2007, to make the list of 100 top earners on Wall Street, you needed an income of at least $75 million! The top earners made over $1 billion!

With that in mind, it is no wonder that new traders set out to make their fortunes in the financial markets. After all, they are bombarded with advertisements and infomercials describing the next great thing in the world of trading. Starting with accounts as small as just a few thousand dollars, these traders hope to hit it big, and they seek to find that holy grail of trading systems that will lead them to the promised land of Wall Street riches.

I was one of those traders almost 15 years ago. At that time, after subscribing to a couple stock newsletters, I was bombarded with other newsletter writers, telling me they new the way to financial fortune. One service got me interested in commodity trading by sending me some spread trading strategies. These proved to be outdated and ineffective, since markets change over time. I then learned a popular trend following system, had some initial success, and then was hooked on trading. Little did I know that trading is a lot more difficult than I realized.

What I didn't realize is that the competition in the financial markets is fierce. Wall Street is littered with MBA's and PHD's from the Ivy League schools. These people are groomed for Wall Street careers through summer internships at the big investment houses such as Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, or even some big hedge funds. Some of these hedge funds not only hire traders, but top scientific minds from disciplines such as physics, chemistry and engineering.

In 1998 I had the opportunity to work for a hedge fund and commodity trading firm as an execution trader dealing with Asian and European markets. This firm was run by a trader who hired computer programmers that could test and research all of his ideas and then program them into automated trading models. The only orders I needed to execute were the more sizable orders so we could avoid the slippage caused by large stop orders. There were other traders and research staff that all had a hand in developing new models for the system. In spite of this, that firm eventually nearly failed and is now just a shell of itself.

Around that same time, I learned that a friend of mine from college worked for one of the biggest offshore commodity funds, and one of the most successful. He indicated that firm also had a significant number of research personnel conducting research on new trading models. Their system was also heavily automated, they had their own research platform for developing these new models.

Also in the late 1990's I was introduced to Jaffray Woodriff of Quantitative Investment Management in Charlottesville, Virginia. We had a mutual friend that was a fraternity brother of mine at William and Mary. The first time I spoke with Jaffray, I realized that he was far more intelligent than I. He was also a computer programmer and learned how to test and develop his own trading models on his own software. He clearly had a passion for the markets and I could just tell this guy was going to make it big. At that time, he had a small trading business, but ran into some initial problems. So, he took off for Wall Street to work at an investment bank. He had some good success on the trading desk there and a few years ago, decided to start up his current business with a partner. That hedge fund now manages over $3 billion!

Now that you know how stiff the competition is, you may think twice about trying your hand at trading for a living. Can it be done? Of course it can. However, the statistics suggest that traders who start out with less than $10,000 trading futures or in the Forex currency markets will fail 90% of the time. The main reason for this is the lack of capital, but it can also be attributed to not having a coherent plan for trading.

With this in mind, new traders should follow the following process before attempting to stake their claim in the financial markets:

1. Determine the absolute highest amount of money you are willing to lose in the markets, money that if lost, will not affect your standard of living.

2. Determine what you seek to achieve in this business. What are your short term goals and long term goals?

3. Determine your monthly bills and make sure those are covered by ANOTHER source of income besides trading.

4. Figure out what type of trading suits your personality best. Are you able to withstand significant losses while waiting for significant trends to develop? Do you need to be right more often than you are wrong? Do you want to take quick small profits or wait for big trades that occur over longer periods of time? Can you pay attention to the markets with no distraction throughout the day, or do you have a real day job that requires most of your attention? Are you more interested in technical analysis or fundamental analysis? Do you like mechanical trading systems or do you like to go with your gut? When you answer these questions you can figure out whether you should focus on longer term stock trading, daytrading, short term swing trading, options trading, etc.

5. Once you figure out the trading style that suits you best, then you must conduct a good bit of research on the markets to develop your trading strategies. I recommend backtesting strategies on historical data with a program such as TradeStation. If you are able to program your own software for developing trading models, that is even better. Do not fall into the trap of just looking at the bottom line results of the models that you test. You must see how they perform on a day-to-day and month-to-month basis so that you will have an idea of the losses you can expect when trading for real.

6. Do not start trading until you are absolutely confident in the strategies you have developed. One big mistake a lot of traders make is not sticking to their plan. As soon they experience a drawdown, they give up on their strategy and try and trade a new one. As soon as they start the new one, the old one starts working. This is one reason I recommend against the purchase of black box trading systems without any knowledge of how these systems select their trades.

7. After you start trading, maintain records on how your trading. Be sure to write down the reason for initiating your trade, and the reason you exit. If you deviate from your strategy, state why, and how that deviant trade performed. In this way you will be able to keep track of what works for you and what does not.

Ultimately, you must approach trading like you would any other business or profession. It requires research, education and knowledge to succeed in this business. Many people fail, so do not assume that because you have some smarts that you can be successful. Successful trading requires careful planning, common sense, intestinal fortitude, and a little luck!

Scott Cole
http://www.kungfutrader.com

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Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Forex Trading Strategies Or Forex Trading System?

If you've been in the Forex trading game for any number of days, hours or minutes you'll have realized there are a plethora of applications, strategies and methods available to get you the results you want. Mad confusion, so which are better and for what purpose? Don't stop now, keep reading!

Let's start with the big one, Forex trading strategies. One thing you should understand before even thinking about designing or getting help with a trading strategy is you need knowledge of the trading game. You try to develop a strategy or get one from someone else but you have little to no knowledge you're likely to lose money. So if you don't know the market, skip the next paragraph because they're not for you. Come on now don't cry; there's something for everyone in this article (even those with no experience).

So yeah, Forex strategies are to be used by those who know what they're doing. The idea is pretty self-explanatory from the term. You use a strategy to stop missing good Forex trades and start making a consistent and reliable income in both large numbers and a fast manner. These strategies go from basic like "fast moving averages crossover" to complex like "picking tops and bottoms". Google those terms and you'll be guaranteed to find those strategies and likely many more. I just want to add that strategies like those are for educational purposes only as the trading market can significantly change at any time. I am not suggesting those do or do not work I am simply saying those are common strategies. Use at your own risk.

Next come Forex trading systems. There are a ton of these bad boys out there but let's focus on a common style, autopilot, and a common choice, Forex Tracer. The concept, again, is pretty self-explanatory by the term. It's an autopilot application. It does it all on its own. These are the optimal choices for lazy people like me who want large amounts of cash with little effort. Worst case scenario we spend 10-15 minutes in front of the computer per-day. All that's left is leaving the computer on and connected to the Internet 24/7 and it'll do the trading for us. What's not to love?

The GOOD autopilot Forex trading systems are created by expert traders/advisors along with mathematicians and in some cases, behavioral psychologists. Heavy stuff man. This combination of experts ensures you're getting reliable information (they send updates, newsletters, have full support, etc.) from credible sources. That's what we're after for maximum profits. In the case of Forex Tracer there is also a "demo account" where you can play the trading market with "play money" to see how much you could potentially profit. No investment needed, it's great.

So there you have it. Strategies are great for those who know and understand the complicated magic that we call Forex trading and Forex trading systems are for those who genuinely don't care about the complicated business and just want the money (with little work).

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